WORLD FOOD NEEDS AND ITS PLANNING
WORLD FOOD NEEDS AND ITS PLANNING
By Ghulam Mohyuddin WANI
EMIAL fastwani@in.com
FOUNDATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,OF KASHMIR, India
Introduction
The world of tomorrow will be 9 Billion,if the present dooms day predictions and war mongering does not disturb its configuration. For 1 Billions Indian we need about 210 million tons of food grains not only to sustain the people but its vast livestock too. A man needs 200-300 grams of grains or roughly 5oo grams of raw harvested food grains. The calculations are such that the harvested grains lose about 10-30 % of its value by weight during its processing from paddy to rice and wheat to flour etc.Thus the nine Billion people going to inhabit this globe by 2050 will need roughly 1-2 billion tons of coarse –fine grains. Let us see what is the world situation.
World food deficiency syndromes
The price rise of food during 2007-08 was the result of a number of the factors and not essentially the common factor of the weather fluctuations, bad rains or no rains. The new economic prosperity in the densely populated countries of the world the India and China might be a reason too, the changing food needs of its middle class populace might also contribute to more food use or even the increased purchasing powers might have resulted in the change. In the entire world food and nutritional balances are going to be important factors for the coming decades.
BIO-CONVERSION OF THE FOOD GRAINS
The competitive industrialization in the world has put pressure on the fossil fuels and energy source. All the wars of today are fought for the fuel and not for the food as was usual in olden days. With water becoming a priced commodity world over and natural resources reducing and/ or deteriorating, it is a global crime to have bio fuel from the food grains. Most of the biotech corm is being further processed for biofuel.This ethanol preparation has catched the attention of the poorest farmers in a famine prone state of Bihar in India. We hear of conversion of food crops for the biofuel.This trend initiated in the EU AND USA is not going to stop. A day is not far off when for running a car man shall sacrifice the food needs of a dozen man and women, thus it is not war only but the utilization of food too which matters .The processin,distributions and utilization need to be streamlined. Let us highlight the other food crop utility scenario too.
FOOD UTILITY SCENARIO,
In 1979 when we constituted a sheep and goat study group and were seeking its recognition, one of the colleagues Prof R M Acharya told us that when he discussed the name with Prof MS SWAMINATHAN the then DG ICAR ,{A VETERON agricultural scientist and ideal of this humble author }He added the word utilization ,the full name is now Indian society for the study of sheep and goat production and utilization.The word utilization has not occurred to us and was added by Prof Swaminathan.Today when we review it is not the production but its utilization which makes people to suffer from hunger. According to a rough estimate of food production in the world the growth rate increases by 1-2 percent .Every year from sowing to harvesting we lose a substantial amount through disease, unscientific management or climatic factors. The man made problems and other on the farming awareness also contributors to the food loss.A substantial food loss is post harvest and during storing and transport. One wonders at the figures proposed by many authors that the post harvest loss equal to 20-30 % of the produce. Thus even without any change in the production scenario if the utilization part is well cared, we may reduce 10-20 % FOOD DEFICIENCY IN THE WORLD.
TECHNOLOGIES ON THE SHELF.
The productivity figures demonstrated by research in the world are not uniformly achieved in any state ,country or the content. The gaps in the research and farmers farms is always wide favouring knowledge driven farming.Inspite of efficient and near holistic delivery of technologies in many countries like USA the gaps do exist and can never be bridges on a 100% basis. Thus even if the adoption of the perfectly applicable technology is used in any part of the world we have the prospects of increasing world food grains’ by a substantial degree, We have tried to sum up some of the gains of technology use in many countries from Asia to America in our previous paper on extension reforms(WANI,2008) in this and many free websites. The cross citation is not permitted as such the exact reference s are not given here. However the readers are requested to go through all related articles on food submitted by the author in this and other webs. They have been translated in more than 30 languages by now and viewed by more than 5000 viewers in the globe. A few comments mostly appreciation and spelling corrections were also emailed. Sometimes I keep some spelling mistakes intentionally to see the response of my viewer. Once they point the desired mistake it makes me confident that he has read it .Our aim of these papers is to incite a discussion and thinking process which shall help us to feed the upcoming 9 billion in 2050.
WHAT WE NEED
Roughly 8-9 tons of rice per hector of land under irrigated systems has been achieved. A detailed country wise achievement figures are given in our previous papers on rice production in Kashmir. The world farmers in general and those under developing counties have much less averages. Indian average is 3 t/hec and can be increased to 4t/hec vertically. If new location specific varieties with shorter gestation and lower water irrigation instead of flooding or stagnant waters are evolved, we may raise this average to 5or 6 t/hac easily .The delivery system is to be pulled or fine tuned. We need to remove the hand breaks and move to refined gear system. The whole system needs a change ,as was made in IndiA (ICAR)at the time of green revolution by prof M S SWAMINATHAN.I am confident the new leadership in2009 of the ICAR is sure to lead a leap forward as has been demonstrated by him as DDG Fishries.His humble, scientific and imaginative dispensation is sure to make ICAR worth its metal.
FOOD TO BIO-FUEL
When world food prices experienced their sharpest rise for 30 years. Food riots swept through three dozen countries and two governments (Haiti’s and Madagascar’s) were overthrown by the events that the price rises set in 2008-09 is it advisable to change food to biofuel.
GLOBAL FOOD PROBLEMS.
Food problems were masked for a while by the financial crisis. But as Jacques Dour, head of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), said this week, “when the recovery picks up, we will be back to square one.” Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs argues that while most recession-hit industries in the rich world are operating at 60-70% of capacity, agriculture is at full capacity, in the sense that last year’s cereals crop was the largest on record and there is little fallow land ready to be taken under the plough. If there were another supply or demand shock, the farm-trade system would not cushion the blow.
DEVELOPED VS DEVELOPING NATIONS
- The above quote from the web depicts the importance of agriculture in the world economy. True the developed nations GDP has little to gain or loose from the agriculture sector. For example less than 1% Americans are employed in direct agriculture and the GDP has less than 3-4 % share in total GDP in these advanced countires.Infact advanced nations have the banks whose deposits are primerly form all the countries of the world. It is there economic efficiency which allowed them to bathe in the sea of finances. It is to be seen whether the new economic order shaping the world will have opposite effects on the developed nations reserve and cash flow. Many countries with surplus cash have or are looking for healthier pasture to get fatten. It apears that the EU and USA economic and financial pasture have little sward length to sustain heavier economic cows.
The present spending of more than 46-48 % of global defence budget by USA demands to increase the FAO budget too. A billion dollar promise if converted into reality may remove some of the confronting resource problems of the FAO.A recent suggestion box quote are reproduced below from the web and in their word sounds as.”
The yield growth in cereals is declining.
In the first ten months of this year, food prices raised by 9.8%, prompting fears of a resumption of the surge that began in 2007, the first of the two years of crisis. The tea, cocoa, sugar, important sources of calories in some parts of the world are trading at their highest levels for 30 years. Worse, the price respite, while it lasted, did nothing for the poorest and most vulnerable. According to the FAO, the number of malnourished people in the world rose to over 1 billion this year, up from 915m in 2008 . Economists at the World Bank reckon that the number living on less than $1.25 a day will rise by 89m between 2008 and 2010 and those on under $2 a day will raise by 120m.
Certainly, say most governments. Money is starting to pour into agriculture after 30 years of neglect. There has been a spasm of institutional reform. And public and private sectors are doing more to help farmers than ever.
At their meeting in L’Aquila in July, the Group of Eight (G8) large rich economies promised to increase spending on agricultural development by $20 billion over the next three years. Not much of this was new money (probably $3 billion-5 billion) and it is not clear how much, if any, has been delivered. The amount also falls far short of the $44 billion that the FAO guesses will be needed each year to end malnutrition (and even shorter, aid agencies reflect, of the $14 trillion poured by rich countries into their banks). Still, the amount is not trivial. It would finance for three years the annual $7 billion that the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), a think tank in Washington, DC, estimates will be the bill for developing countries to protect agriculture from the impact of climate change. And it excludes the far greater sums developing countries themselves are promising to farming. Agriculture and food security have become “the core of the international agenda”, as the G8 called it. In 2009, the World Bank increased its spending on agriculture by 50%, to $6 billion. The Islamic Development Bank is creating an agriculture department for the first time.
Barack Obama asked Congress to double to just over $1 billion America’s aid for agricultural development in 2010. And in a sign that food productivity means more than warm words and cash, he nominated a pundit, not a politician, to head USAID, the assistance agency: Rajiv Shah, the chief scientist .
HOPE
Let us stop at this positive note form two great democracies one who fed world at the hour of need and gave scientific skills of Norman Boarlag.The other country who has risen from a begging bowl to doner one in last few yaers.Both the countries USA and India have brought young and efficient leaders like dr Rajeev shah and Dr S. AYYAPAN .Let us pray the word S brings strength to both, the one to donate for food and the other to have another green revolution or greening the grey arrears through reformation and efficient outreach and delivery of location specific research end products to farmers fields.
Again the food crisis and distribution system is worst effected in the Horn of Africa. Is anything been done to have future food shocks and security banks not only for humans but for the whole lot of living creature of the world?
To be continued
About the Author
Dadecated to the needy to be fed suffucuently along with other creature and hungry.I wish the African and asian populace below poverty line 1-2 billions as on date iving on less than 1-2 dollars a day to be happy.There are resources with the world to feed 9 millions in 2050,how read this article and thise preceeding and following it.thanks
Maroantsetra, Madagascar
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